Our Research

GTIS conducts macro research at the national, regional, submarket and individual asset level and seeks in-depth understanding of the value drivers that can contribute to superior risk adjusted returns. Through its proprietary research, GTIS provides:

  • White papers on emerging real estate topics
  • Market Commentaries on markets and sectors in Brazil and the United States
  • Quarterly Live Webinars
  • Editorials in Industry Publications
  • Fundamental Macro Research Analysis

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Research Highlights

2020 – Impact of Covid-19 on the US Job Market

2020 – Q1 US Market Commentary

2020 – Q1 Brazil Market Commentary

2020 – Impact of Covid-19 on the US Job Market

The Covid-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented loss of jobs in the U.S. since social distancing measures were implemented in mid-March. Over 41 million workers have filed for State unemployment benefits and an additional 9.4 million filed for pandemic related assistance, comprising 32% of the nation’s workforce. The official unemployment rate climbed to 14.7% in April, the worst since the Great Depression, but given the number of continued filings, economists expect it to rise to 25%. Job losses have not been spread evenly across the economy, but concentrated in sectors most affected by shelter-in-place orders such as retail, travel and entertainment. The government response to the crisis has also been unprecedented, with the CARES dramatically expanding the social safety net to cushion the impact. A median worker is temporarily receiving more in unemployment than in full-time work, keeping many households afloat. Household income actually increased in April by 10.5%. However, unless the programs are extended, benefit expirations loom at the end of July and December. The long-term impact of the pandemic will only become clear as the economy re-opens from the shutdown, with most of the job losses hopefully temporary.

2020 – Q1 US Market Commentary

COVID-19 and the policies used to quell its spread have forced many economies around the globe into a recession. This weakness inevitably flowed through to housing data, but there are some early indications that the market is in better shape than many feared. After dropping by double digits, growth in new and existing home sales is expected to rebound in May amid new mortgage applications that are already above 2019 levels. The market commentary discusses several key tailwinds driving the recovery in housing activity - historically low interest rates, shift of preference away from high-density, downtown areas, and a swift action from the government to maintain the functioning of the mortgage market.

2020 – Q1 Brazil Market Commentary

The stars were seemingly aligned for Brazil’s economy entering 2020, but the outbreak of COVID-19 changed that in a matter of weeks. While the full impact has yet to be realized as Brazil’s outbreak began later than other countries and is currently still expanding, it is already clear that Latin America’s largest economy will see a sharp slowdown in growth during 2020 and unprecedent levels of unemployment. Adding to the internal pressure caused by the virus and lockdown measures, political stability in Brazil has deteriorated due to President Bolsonaro’s populist rejection of the pandemic measures and at times open conflict with other branches of government.