Our Research

GTIS conducts macro research at the national, regional, submarket and individual asset level and seeks in-depth understanding of the value drivers that can contribute to superior risk adjusted returns. Through its proprietary research, GTIS provides:

  • White papers on emerging real estate topics
  • Market Commentaries on markets and sectors in Brazil and the United States
  • Quarterly Live Webinars
  • Editorials in Industry Publications
  • Fundamental Macro Research Analysis

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Research Highlights

Future of Brazil E-Commerce and Logistics Real Estate

Brazil FII Market Liquidity

Brazil Real Estate

Future of Brazil E-Commerce and Logistics Real Estate

When it comes to e-commerce and the digital economy, Brazil today is in many ways where the United States was in 2010. Adoption has already begun, but online sales as a percent of total retail sales remains low when compared with the developed world. The next decade represents the opportunity for e-commerce to grow rapidly. Supporting and enabling that growth will require substantial investment in Brazil’s industrial and logistics footprints. While capitalizing on the opportunity will require uniquely positioned investors, with experience in both logistics and transacting in Brazil, the outlook for well-positioned logistics real estate is bright.

Brazil FII Market Liquidity

Brazil’s real estate capital markets have seen a record shift in liquidity from private to public markets. New legislation preventing pension funds from making direct real estate investments has pushed domestic institutions, a stable source of demand, towards public FII offerings. Simultaneously, demand from retail investors for public real estate funds has surged as interest rates hit all-time lows, sparking a hunt for yield and a large rotation out of fixed income products. This shift in liquidity has large implications for exits by owners of high quality real estate assets in Brazil. A well-positioned FII offering tailored to the new institutional investor base has the opportunity to command an attractive premium.

Brazil Real Estate

Performance among real estate sectors in Brazil has been highly differentiated. While office market fundamentals were strong entering 2020, COVID-19 and social distancing requirements put pressure on demand, driving absorption down and vacancy rates up. It is important to distinguish between office submarkets, however, as the variance in performance is large. GTIS target markets such as JK and Itaim have outperformed by a wide margin. In the logistics sector, the rapid adoption of ecommerce sparked by the pandemic has strengthened fundamentals. GTIS expects demand to remain strong over the long term as Brazil’s logistics market requires substantial expansion in order to approach developed market peers. The residential sector has been stable during the pandemic and has enjoyed increased demand stemming from all-time low interest rates. Hospitality has been more challenged, but using China as a reference, control of the virus can lead to a rapid recovery. Drive-to leisure destinations have lead the recovery thus far, and GTIS expects that to continue as long as COVID-19 remains a threat. Assets tailored to international travel are likely to lag and a full recovery in those properties may require a widely distributed vaccine.

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