Our Research

GTIS conducts macro research at the national, regional, submarket and individual asset level and seeks in-depth understanding of the value drivers that can contribute to superior risk adjusted returns. Through its proprietary research, GTIS provides:

  • White papers on emerging real estate topics
  • Market Commentaries on markets and sectors in Brazil and the United States
  • Quarterly Live Webinars
  • Editorials in Industry Publications
  • Fundamental Macro Research Analysis

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Research Highlights

2017 – Q2 Defensive Market Selection

2017 – Q2 Brazil Office Market Entering a Recovery

2017 - Q1 E-Commerce and Logistics Demand

2017 – Q2 Defensive Market Selection

As the US real estate cycle enters its later stages, careful market research should inform investment strategy in order to pare down risk, while still leaving space for capturing secular growth opportunities that are less correlated with the general market. We believe that three key adjustments can help in this process and be tactically defensive while delivering favorable returns: 1) moving lower in the capital stack and investing in debt or preferred equity, 2) reallocating towards historically resilient sectors such as the residential rental market, and 3) targeting secondary markets that are transitioning to primary market status thanks to identified secular growth drivers such as new job growth or strong demographics. In prior commentaries, we have addressed the selection of property types and the positioning in the capital structure. This commentary is focused on the third and in some ways the most challenging strategy of identifying up-and-coming markets.

2017 – Q2 Brazil Office Market Entering a Recovery

After suffering a serious setback over the past few years, it is now time for investors to take a forward-looking view of Brazil’s office market as the Brazilian economy begins to stabilize. When GTIS launched our first dedicated Brazil fund nearly a decade ago, we noted that one of the fundamental growth drivers in Brazil is the lack of high-quality office space suitable for global office tenants. Despite the period of elevated new office supply from 2012 to 2015, GTIS believes the same long-term growth drivers still exist. Class A/A+ office space has increased from 11% to 22% of São Paulo office stock since 2008 but is still well below 50-60% that is typical of large commercial centers. For developers of new towers, rents today are of course much lower than they originally underwrote, but rents in Brazil reset to market every three years. While no two cycles are the same, average asking rents grew at a CAGR of 12.8% in the previous market cycle of the early to mid 2000s. The limited new supply pipeline coupled with a falling interest rate environment and stronger growth should provide a favorable outlook for rents and office valuations going forward.

2017 - Q1 E-Commerce and Logistics Command

E-commerce has revolutionized the retail and logistics industries. To keep up with consumer trends and expectations, retailers must implement complex transportation networks and logistics facilities to enable them to ship directly to consumers in ever shorter delivery times. Industrial real estate providers have an opportunity to meet the growing logistics needs of e-commerce by developing and acquiring strategically located facilities in proximity to end consumers, with accessibility to transportation networks that fit into the retailers’ evolving supply chains. This quarter, GTIS Research analyzed how e-commerce has disrupted the US retail and logistics landscape, with the goal of identifying “knowledge transfer” opportunities and trends that will be applicable to our growing logistics portfolio in Brazil.